Economic outlook: More Americans plan to have children and buy homes

More Americans are planning to have a baby next year, according to a Bank of America survey, which could be a sign that there is at least enough hope for the future to bring another life to this world.

In a research note Wednesday, BofA said the share of respondents who said they or their partner were expecting/trying to have/adopt a child in the next 12 months rose to 12.4% in June from 11.5% in May. The latest reading is the highest since February 2023 and is up significantly from less than 8% in February of this year.

A June bump doesn’t mean it’s in season either. BofA research shows that this month’s reading was higher than June 2023 and June 2021 but lower than June 2022.

And as expectations rise for larger families, that may help fuel the desire to find a new home.

The share of respondents who said they plan to buy a home in the next 12 months was 24.0% in June, roughly down from May’s 24.3% but a significant increase from prints below 20% in the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024. .

That’s even after mortgage rates spiked earlier this year when signs of sticky inflation dashed hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a seven-month low, falling to 65.6 in June from 69.1 in May and defying forecasts for an improvement to 72.

To be sure, expressed intentions to have a child differ from actual fertility rates, which have been declining for years and reached a record low in the US last year of 1.62 births per woman. It’s as Gen Zers report they plan to have just one child while sperm counts have plummeted for decades in what some are calling a global “spermpocalypse.”

Other advanced economies have been seeing similar trends, which could weigh on their growth potential. Low fertility has so alarmed East Asian governments that they have issued additional fiscal stimulus, which has had little effect so far.

The decline has also alarmed Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who famously called the world’s rapidly declining birth rate “one of the greatest dangers to civilization.”

“Many people, including intelligent people, think that there are too many people in the world and think that the population is growing out of control. It’s the complete opposite,” he said in 2021. “Please look at the numbers — if people don’t have more children, civilization will collapse, mark my words.”