France votes in election that could give power to far right By Reuters

Written by Mimosa Spencer

PARIS (Reuters) – French voters head to the polls on Sunday in the first round of snap parliamentary elections that could bring the country’s first far-right government since World War Two, a potential sea change at the heart of the European Union.

President Emmanuel Macron stunned the country when he called a vote after his centrist coalition was crushed in European elections this month by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN). His eurosceptic, anti-immigrant party was once a pariah but is now closer to power than ever.

Polls opened at 0600 GMT and will close at 1600 GMT in small towns and cities, ending at 1800 GMT in major cities, when the first night’s exit polls and predictions of seats for the crucial second round a week later are expected.

However, the electoral process may make it difficult to estimate the exact allocation of seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, and the final result will not be known until the end of voting on July 7.

“We will win an absolute majority,” Le Pen said in an interview with the newspaper on Wednesday, predicting that her colleague, Jordan Bardella, 28, will become prime minister. His party has an economic plan that uses a lot of money and wants to reduce immigration.

A woman shouted “Shame, shame” as Bardella arrived to vote in Garches near Paris. “They invited even those who left,” he said.

If the RN wins an absolute majority, the French negotiations could be headed for an unprecedented period of chaos: with Macron – who has said he will continue as president until his term expires in 2027 – and Bardella fighting for the right to speak. France.

France has had three periods of “accommodation” – in which the president and government came from opposing political camps – in its post-war history, but none with radically different worldviews competing nationally.

Bardella has indicated that he will challenge Macron on global issues. France could go from being a pillar of the EU to its fear, demanding a reduction in France’s contribution to the EU budget, clashing with Brussels over European Commission duties and reversing Macron’s calls for greater EU unity and defense assertiveness.

A clear RN victory will also bring uncertainty about France’s position in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Le Pen has a history of supporting Russia and while the party now says it will help Ukraine defend itself against Russian invaders, it has also drawn red lines, such as refusing to provide long-range missiles.

In Hénin-Beaumont, a town in the Le Pen region in northern France where he could be re-elected in the first round, 67-year-old Denis Ledieu said people were suffering because of the region’s long-term deindustrializaton.

“So if (RN) promises them things, then why not? They want to try it, I think,” he said.

Across France, turnout was higher for the 2022 legislative vote, with 25.9% at noon, compared to 18.43% two years ago, the Interior Ministry said.

‘SPLIT VOTE FAVORS RN’

Opinion polls suggest the RN is leading with 33%-36% of the popular vote, with a rapidly assembled coalition, the New Popular Front, in second place with 28%-31% and Macron’s centrist coalition in third place. at 20%-23%.

The New Popular Front includes many parties, from the center-left to the left, eurosceptic, anti-NATO France Unbowed, led by one of Macron’s most vocal opponents, Jean-Luc Melenchon.

How the voting numbers will translate into seats in the National Assembly is difficult to predict because of how elections work, said Vincent Martigny, professor of political science at the University of Nice and Ecole Polytechnique.

Candidates can be elected in the first round if they receive the most votes in their precincts, but that is rare. Most states will require a second round that includes all voters who received votes from at least 12.5% ​​of registered voters in the first round. Whoever scores the most goals wins.

“If you have a high level of participation, you can have a third or fourth party entering the struggle. So of course there is a risk of voting split and we know that the split of the vote is in favor of the National Rally,” said Martigny. .

Over the decades, as the far right gradually gained popularity, voters and parties that did not support it rallied against it whenever it came close to national power, but that may not be true this time.

Martigny said no one knows whether candidates in Macron’s camp will consider withdrawing from the second round to give left-wing rivals a chance to defeat RN, or vice versa.

Le Pen and Bardella want to make their party’s image more acceptable to the masses, for example by criticizing anti-Semitism. Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, founder and long-time leader of the RN predecessor, had a history of controversial comments.

But critics say the RN’s anti-Jews is just a cover that allows it to deny allegations of racism while still discriminating against Muslims and foreigners.