Record companies tell MBW: No, the industry is not losing paying subscribers in Sweden

Some of the world’s biggest record companies have expressed surprise at the results of a study in the Nordics which suggests that subscriptions to music services in Sweden are declining.

Last week, MBW reported on YouGov a survey conducted with Scandinavian collective societies during May 2024there 4,000 people are asked across the Nordics.

Those discussions suggested that a going down in the number of people who pay for music streaming in Sweden.

For YouGov survey respondents based in Sweden, 56% they said they are Premium subscribers to the music subscription service, from the ground up 59% between2022.

Meanwhile, the same study for 2024 also suggested that Swedes are getting older economically sensitive to the rising prices of music streaming subscriptions.

However, these results, according to the leading companies in the world’s largest recorded music businessshould be seen as a survey-specific anomaly rather than an indication of a broader trend.

MBW has seen internal data from record companies around the world (informed by data provided by streaming partners) showing that the total account holders who pay for audio music streaming subscriptions in Sweden since May this year approx 2.87 million.

At the end of 2022 (December), this number – which shows all subscribers Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, Amazon Music, Deezer and SoundCloud – stood nearby 2.80 million. (These numbers do not include free trials.)

“We don’t see much growth in Sweden these days, but we do see stability.”

A record company executive

As one record company executive told MBW while presenting this data: “No, we do not see strong growth in Sweden these days, but we see stability. Despite the price increase, the overall trend over the past two years has been slightly upward.”

One record company executive simply said: “I YouGov the data does not agree with us.”

Some internal record company data we’ve seen shows the total number of paid streaming accounts in Sweden — that is, it includes users of Family Programs etc., who do not pay the bill for their subscription but use the services.

Again, this data was obtained from our sources directly from streaming providers in the market.

It shows that they were there 5.06 million the number of users of paid accounts in Sweden as of May 2024; that was from 4.52 million June 2022.

The record company we spoke to declined to comment on the record because, as mentioned, this streaming data from Sweden given to them – under secret status – by digital partners.

However, the figures from our sources seem to be consistent with other available evidence.

MBW contacted the general market watcher Luminate today (July 2) for their response to the YouGov survey.

Luminate It doesn’t publicly disclose the numbers of subscribers to the services, but it tracks closely full streaming for both paid and ad-supported accounts in many markets around the world.

“Looking at the first half of 2024, our data shows that the most popular streams in Sweden, meaning those from paid subscriptions, have grown in volume more 700 million compared to the first half of 2023, or in +4.3% [YoY].”

Rob Jonas, Luminate

Rob Jonasthe CEO of Luminate, revealed: “Looking to the first half of 2024, our data shows that premium on-demand streaming in Sweden, meaning that from paid subscriptions, has grown in volume over 700 million compared to the first half of 2023, or in +4.3% [YoY].”

Jonas he added: “On average, premium streaming is done 86% of on-demand streaming service in Sweden during the first half of 2024, with ad-supported activity representing the remainder 14%.

“That [premium vs. ad-supported] the allocation remains consistent with the 2023 data. “

What else MBW which we learned from the private service level data we saw in it in Sweden these past few days?

Spotify has the most subscribers of any service in Sweden, with a market share of approx 88%.

And here’s the big one: Our sources agree that Sweden is a global destination industry market leader when it comes to cancellation rates – or ‘churn’ prices – paying subscribers for music streaming.

According to the data we have seen, Spotify’s Premium churn rate in in Sweden sitting around 1.0% to all subscribers. That compares, for example, approx 2.0% in the United States.

(There was a partial jump in this churn rate in both countries after that Spotify increased prices in Sweden and the US last year, but this has remained at ~1.0% in Sweden and ~2.0% in the US, according to our sources.)

So, with all that in mind, here’s how YouGov’s the data appeared to show a clear decrease in respondents using a paid music service in Sweden in 2024 vs. 2022?

As we mentioned in our first post, that would be a sample size: Remember, a YouGov survey 4,000 people in all the Nordics, and only half of this in Sweden – the previous country 10 million people.

There may be another explanation, too.

The YouGov survey collected data directly from music streaming users in Sweden who were ‘Premium’ subscribers [or] bundlers’.

One record company insider suggested that, over the past 12-18 months, Spotify effectively breaks account sharing in its Family program, in cases where unrelated people who do not live at the same address share accounts.

Within YouGov’s sample size, this may have caused a slight decline in the Premium account users in the middle in Sweden.

A lot of market evidence, however, points to a very positive trend: as MBW wrote the other day, IFPI data shows that revenues from broadcasting recorded music across the Swedish industry have actually increased more. 6% year after year in 2023.

(in Sweden it was the 16th largest recorded music market in the world by revenue last year, according to the IFPI.)

In 2021, two years before it did the same in the US, Spotify increased every month Premium for each person price in Sweden by 10%up from 99 SEC (about $9.99) until 109 SEC (about $10.99).

Another price increase in Sweden came last year.

Today, Swedish customers take the Premium subscription for each individual they are offered a free trial for a month without ads Spotify. After this, they have to pay 119 SEK (approx. USD $11.21) per month.Music Business Worldwide